The Politics of Energy-Democracy: The World Around Us

Sun, 5 Jun 2005 04:54:42 -0700- This FBC Posting contains:

1). Hunger for Energy Transforms How India Operates, The New York Times
2). Revealed: the new scramble for Africa, The Guardian, UK
3). Japan and China Battle for Russia's Oil and Gas
4). Tokyo Casts Pipeline Financing in Doubt, The Moscow Times
5). Country Profile, China: US Department of Energy
6). Measures of Petroleum Dependence and Vulnerability in OECD Countries, The
Middle East Economic Survey


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/05/international/asia/05india.html?pagewanted=print

June 5, 2005
Hunger for Energy Transforms How India Operates
By SOMINI SENGUPTA, The New York Times

NEW DELHI, June 1 - Fed by a decade-long economic boom, India's ever-growing
appetite for energy is quietly reshaping the way it operates in the world,
changing relations with its neighbors, extending its reach to oil states as far
flung as Sudan and Venezuela, and overcoming Washington's resistance to its
nuclear ambitions.

Hovering over India's energy quest is its biggest competitor: China, which is
also scouring the globe to line up new energy sources. The combined appetite of
the two Asian giants is raising oil prices and putting greater demands on world
oil supplies.

Already India's energy ambitions have led to developments unthinkable just a
couple of years ago: a proposed pipeline to ferry natural gas from Iran across
Pakistan; a new friendship with the military government in gas-rich Myanmar,
formerly Burma; and budding talks with the United States to let India buy
nuclear technology.

Nuclear power is expected to top the agenda when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
visits Washington to meet with President Bush in July. While India covets new
equipment to strengthen its feeble nuclear energy program, the United States
has prohibited the sale of nuclear technology to India since it tested a
nuclear bomb in 1998.

"International cooperation, international understanding of India's nuclear
ambition," Mr. Singh told foreign journalists on Monday, in an allusion to what
New Delhi wants from the United States, "can help to ensure our nuclear energy
program moves forward at a faster pace."

To understand India's dire need for energy, consider the fate of its commercial
capital, Mumbai, formerly Bombay. It was enveloped in darkness in May because
of a severe power shortage.

These days, the prime minister is engaged in a politically explosive argument
with left-wing parties after suggesting that the government curtail giving free
electricity to farmers. As the world's fifth-largest consumer of energy, India
used energy at the equivalent of 538 million tons of oil daily in 2002, the
most recent year for which figures were available from the International Energy
Agency. That demand is expected to nearly double by 2030.

Today, India imports about 70 percent of its oil; in another 20 years, the
Indian government estimates, that will rise to an ominous 85 percent. India's
demand for natural gas is also expected to grow, and most of it would have to
be imported.

"Our dependence is rising," Mani Shankar Aiyar, India's petroleum minister,
said during a recent interview in his office. "I welcome that, because it
reflects India moving on."

Indeed, it is. "Mutual dependencies" is the buzzword of the day, signaling the
way oil and gas links among South Asian countries stand to rewrite the enmities
of the past. "The foreign policy of India will have a lot to do with energy,"
said Ashutosh Varshney, a political scientist at the University of Michigan.
"That is a new imagination and one likely to stay."

That vision is not without its challenges. On the one hand, India seeks to cast
itself as the model of democratic pluralism, as in its bid for a permanent seat
on the United Nations Security Council. On the other, its hunt for fuel is
pushing it to reach out to authoritarian governments like those of Sudan and
Myanmar, which the United States has sought to isolate. In both of those
countries, China's weight is also keenly felt.

But India is quickly making inroads. It has persuaded a wary Bangladesh to
agree, at least in principle, to a pipeline that would ship gas from Myanmar to
India.

Mr. Aiyar, the petroleum minister, has been shuttling to Saudi Arabia, India's
largest oil supplier, to persuade it to invest in Indian oil and gas projects,
among other things. He has also sought to lure foreign investors to explore for
reserves in the Bay of Bengal, off India's eastern coast - what he buoyantly
calls "the North Sea of South Asia."

By far, New Delhi's most ambitious proposal is a $4 billion, 1,600-mile
pipeline that would ferry natural gas from Iran across Pakistan to India,
though a final deal is nowhere near fruition. [Talks resumed on Saturday, when
Mr. Aiyar visited Islamabad.] Pakistan stands to collect handsome transit fees
from the pipeline. But how it would ensure its security across vast, restive
Baluchistan Province, where disgruntled tribal armies routinely attack gas
installations, remains a mystery.

Among Mr. Aiyar's "fanciful dreams," as he calls them, is yet another pipeline
that would dispatch gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, then into
Pakistan and India.

"We now realize we have to get a large part of our energy from our extended
neighborhood, and that means we have to engineer and structure new
relationships," said R. K. Pachauri, director general of Tata Energy Research
Institute in Delhi. The nonprofit institute estimates that India will need to
invest $766 billion in the energy sector to meet the growing demand over the
next 25 years.

India's changing relationships regarding energy are inspiring a delicate
diplomatic dance with the United States. Publicly, Bush administration
officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on her visit here in
March, have frowned on India's plans with Iran. India is pursuing nuclear
technology as the United States and European nations are trying to get Iran to
give up its own nuclear program.

This week, a senior Indian official, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, was in Washington
to meet with the secretary of energy, Samuel W. Bodman, to discuss, among other
things, nuclear energy options. Whether the United States will turn a blind eye
to the Iran pipeline or consider selling nuclear reactors to India remains
uncertain.

"In some sense there's a delicate tightrope walk that's going on," said Ashley
J. Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "The
Indians are trying to push the limits on what they can get away with, and the
U.S. is trying to see how flexible India might be."

Mr. Aiyar did not miss an opportunity to remind the United States obliquely
that India would not countenance interference in one of its foreign policy
priorities - buying gas from Iran. "We are sensitive to the concerns and
interests of other nations," he said, "even as we expect other nations to be
sensitive to our concerns and our requirements."

When it comes to molding and marketing India's energy needs, Mr. Aiyar - a
leftist at heart, a diplomat by training and possibly the biggest extrovert in
India's Congress Party-led government - likes to think grandly. He never tires
of articulating a chief goal: to persuade China to cooperate rather than
compete for oil and gas abroad. Some analysts greet the idea with skepticism.

Sundeep Waslekar, an analyst with Strategic Foresight Group in Mumbai, notes
that China can offer a much more comprehensive and lucrative package -
including arms sales - to energy-supplying countries like Iran, Sudan, or the
former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Unless India can offer something
strategic to China - food, for instance - China would have little reason to
join efforts.

China-India energy cooperation in the oil and gas sector is "a beautiful
academic idea," Mr. Waslekar said. "I don't see how it could work politically."


Mr. Aiyar is unbowed. He offers the idea of an Asian gas grid that would
stretch from former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan to the Persian Gulf all
the way to China.

Every chance he gets, he pushes the analogy of the European coal and gas
community, the precursor to the European Union. He demands to know why China
and India cannot create the Eastern equivalent. "An Asian oil and gas
community, which could eventually blossom as an Asian identity in the politics
of the world," he said.

Of course, for now, a majority of Indians continue to live in the dark - that
is to say, without electricity - and the most common fuels for Indian
households remain among the worst for respiratory health: charcoal and animal
dung.


=======================================================


Revealed: the new scramble for Africa

David Leigh and David Pallister
Wednesday June 1, 2005
The Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1496547,00.html

A new "scramble for Africa" is taking place among the world's big powers, who
are tapping into the continent for its oil and diamonds.

Tony Blair is pushing hard for African debt relief agreements in the run-up to
the G8 summit in Scotland in July. But while sub-Saharan Africa is the object
of the west's charitable concern, billions of pounds' worth of natural
resources are being removed from it.

A Guardian investigation beginning today reveals that instead of enriching
often debt-ridden countries, some big corporations are accused by campaigners
of facilitating corruption and provoking instability - so much so that
organisations such as Friends of the Earth talk of an "oil curse".

Simon Taylor, director of Global Witness, which has been prominent in urging
reform, said: "Western companies and banks have colluded in stripping Africa's
resources. We need to track revenues from oil, mining and logging into national
budgets to make sure that the money isn't siphoned off by corrupt officials."
Looting of state assets by corrupt leaders should become a crime under
international law, he said.

"The G8 should take the lead in this."

The original Scramble for Africa took place in the late 19th century, when
Britain, France and Germany competed to carve Africa into colonies.

Today corporations from the US, France, Britain and China are competing to
profit from the rulers of often chaotic and corrupt regimes.

Our investigations in three African countries rich in resources - Angola,
Equatorial Guinea and Liberia - show how British-based companies have
negotiated deals that critics say are against the interests of some of the
poorest and most traumatised people on earth.

The Guardian's inquiries focus on a big gas project in Equatorial Guinea; plans
to exploit Liberia's diamonds, and western banks' readiness to provide Angola
with huge oil-backed loans.

In Equatorial Guinea, BG plc (formerly the British Gas state company) has
closed a deal with the regime of President Teodoro Obiang to buy up the
country's production of liquefied natural gas for the next 17 years.

Britain's HSBC bank has been accused by a US Senate committee of helping Mr
Obiang move cash from the country's oil revenues into financial "black holes"
in Luxembourg and Cyprus. The country is threatened with repeated coups by
outsiders keen to get their hands on the oil wealth.

In Liberia, which has been beset by civil war, LIB, a private London bank, was
behind attempts to monopolise alluvial diamond production and the country's
telecommunications. The UN and the World Bank have criticised the schemes as
secretive and against the country's interests. LIB has now withdrawn.

And in Angola, the victim of an even more destructive internal war, one of the
UK's leading development banks, Standard Chartered, has been accused of
damaging the country's economy by providing record multibillion dollar loans
which give a stranglehold over future oil production.

A succession of scandals has already revealed how oil wealth was looted in
billions from the former Abacha military regime in Nigeria with the assistance
of western banks and bribes paid by US oil firms.

In Sudan and Chad, Chinese companies are moving in, backing and arming military
rulers and building pipelines.

And in France, the then state oil company Elf has been accused in corruption
investigations of having paid kickbacks and encouraged regimes to run up debts
as part of a deliberate "African strategy".

Congo-Brazzaville, the fourth-largest sub-Saharan oil producer, was dominated
by Elf, and now has the highest per capita debt in the world.

Global Witness says in a 2004 report: "Oil wealth [there] has left a legacy of
corruption, poverty and conflict."

The British government is pushing an international plan for disclosure by
companies of how much they pay African rulers for their natural resources. The
Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative has been praised by
anti-corruption bodies.

But campaigners say that on present evidence improvements in western behaviour
so far appear slight. And they fear the chances of these issues being raised as
priorities at the G8 summit at Gleneagles in July remain bleak as EU countries
quibble about levels of aid and the US balks at innovative schemes for debt
relief.

Gareth Thomas, the international development minister, said Britain hoped to
have 20 African countries signed up to the transparency code by the end of the
year. "There is big political support for this programme and we will be
addressing the issue in the G8 summit communique," he said.

============================

Bush opposes UK Africa debt plan

The UK's plan to write off debts owed by African nations is facing opposition
in the US - and particularly from President George W Bush.

Mr Bush said a key part of the plan did not fit with the US budget process.

Mr Bush's stance sets up a possible clash with UK Prime Minister Tony Blair,
due in Washington next week.

The UK is pushing hard for major debt relief and a doubling of aid to Africa,
and Chancellor Gordon Brown laid out a set of ambitious plans on Thursday.

This was a time for 100% debt relief not "timidity", Mr Brown said.

The UK has said that 2005 is a vital year for Africa, and argues that without
significantly more money the United Nations' Millennium Goal of halving world
poverty by 2015 will be impossible to meet.

'Agreement possible'

Speaking in Edinburgh, Mr Brown said he would present the proposals to the
leaders of the G8 industrialised nations at a summit next month.

As well as 100% debt relief, Mr Brown wants to set up an International Finance
Facility (IFF) to help pay for immunisation programmes in Africa

He also said that aid should be doubled to $80bn a year by 2010.

But the US remains concerned that the UK is proposing that the debt plans
should be financed in part by selling gold reserves held by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).

A surge in the price of gold has boosted the value of the reserve, and the UK
wants to use that extra cash.

The US - along with some other countries including Japan, Germany and Italy -
has never been keen on the idea of selling IMF gold.

Washington DC has also raised questions over the IFF, which would allow
developing countries to borrow against future aid pledges.

Mr Bush said on Wednesday that the IFF for Africa "doesn't fit our budgetary
process".

Getting closer

According to Reuters, UK government sources have been talking about pressing
ahead even without US involvement.

Mr Brown played down reports of a rift or stand-off between the UK and the US.

"In my talks over the last few months, but particularly over the last day or
two, with the US Treasury Secretary, we believe that there is common ground on
securing that debt relief," he explained.

"We believe it is going to be possible to reach an agreement on debt relief."

"This is not a time for timidity nor a time to fear reaching too high."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/4606197.stm

==========================

January 3, 2004

Japan and China Battle for Russia's Oil and Gas
By JAMES BROOKE

http://www.pipeline.com/~rgibson/japanchina.html

VOSTOCHNY, Russia - For now, Krylova Cape is not much to see: a spit of land
between the Russian taiga forest and the Sea of Japan, its soil being graded a
bit by a bright yellow bulldozer. But what is taking shape here is central to a
pitched struggle between the two most important economies in Asia: the reigning
titan, Japan, and its rising challenger, China.

Both economies are hungry for raw materials, especially energy - Japan because
it has almost none of its own, China because its economic boom has fast
outstripped what once were adequate domestic supplies. Both want to limit their
dependence on oil from distant, politically volatile regions like the Middle
East. And both see an attractive alternative in the little-tapped energy riches
of the vast, vacant Russian Far East.

Getting oil to market from the remote East Siberian fields that Russia is ready
to develop means spending billions on a pipeline. Japan and China are fighting
hard over where that pipeline will go: either to China's northeastern
industrial heartland, or to this stretch of Russian shoreline, where a new
deep-water oil terminal will be just one day's tanker cruise from Japan.

With the choice Russia faces, the political and economic dynamics of Northeast
Asia stand to be profoundly shaped for years to come.

"The Chinese will be furious if the Russians do not give them the pipeline,"
said Graham Hutchings, an Asian specialist with the British consulting group
Oxford Analytica. And no one expects it to be the last time Japan and China
collide over the resources they both need.

China has been talking to Russia about Siberian oil for a decade, and its need
has grown acute. It is on a pace to overtake Japan next year as the world's
second-largest oil consumer, and to catch the leader, the United States,
sometime around 2030, by quintupling its current demand. Energy shortages
plague the country, with 21 provinces experiencing rationing and blackouts so
far this fall and winter, twice as many as last year. A Russia-China pipeline,
Chinese officials say, would be a natural north-south marriage between Asia's
largest oil exporter and what will soon be Asia's largest oil importer.

Japan, whose demand for oil is slowly falling because of anemic growth and a
shift from manufacturing, came later to the game, making a serious alternative
proposal only a year ago. But it has steadily sweetened its bid, while the
financing of the Chinese plan remains fuzzy. Japan now is offering to put up $5
billion for pipeline construction and another $2 billion for oil field
development, while holding out the prospect that a pipeline to the Sea of Japan
could handle oil exports to America, too.

The pipeline rivalry offers a taste of more battles to come, as China moves
aggressively to secure access to resources it needs to keep wheels spinning in
"the factory to the world."

Moving around Asia, China is financing copper and coal mines in Mongolia,
building another oil pipeline in Kazakhstan, negotiating over gas development
in Turkmenistan, buying gas fields and signing long-term supply contracts in
Australia and Indonesia and buying steel in South Korea.

So far, the biggest market impact has been on industrial commodities like coal,
copper and iron ore. Many have reversed long declines and started rising, as
Japanese, Taiwanese and South Korean manufacturers find themselves competing
with China for supplies and bidding prices up. But in oil, Japan and China are
competing over more than just price.

"We are about to enter an age in which Japan and China scramble for oil,"
Yoichi Funabashi, international affairs columnist for Japan's Asahi Shimbun,
wrote recently. "China acts, and Japan reacts. Now, we are losing the oil
race."

In Japan's rush to get in on Siberian oil development, it has all but ignored
the inconvenient diplomatic fact that Japan and Russia never signed a peace
treaty after World War II. For decades, the sticking point has been Japanese
claims over four islands in the Kurile chain north of Hokkaido that Soviet
forces seized in the autumn of 1945.

"Energy security, energy diversity, energy from across the Japan Sea is
sufficiently important to move the Kurile Islands way down the list" of
priorities, said Stephen O'Sullivan, head of oil and gas research at UFG, a
Moscow-based investment bank.

Japan has quietly decided to deal with the island question separately and not
let it block economic relations with Russia. "It is the issue which is being
left aside," Vladimir I. Ivanov, a Russian economist, said by telephone from
Niigata, Japan, where he researches regional energy issues. "Nobody wants to
link the islands with the pipeline project."

In Moscow, advocates of a China pipeline say that binding Russia and China
together in economic interdependence would be good for regional stability, on
the model of Canada and the United States. Similar reasoning helped propel a
$17 billion project to build a 3,055-mile natural gas pipeline from eastern
Siberia to serve northeast China and South Korea, which won initial approval in
November.

China's voracious appetite for energy is also lighting a competitive fire under
Japan's conservative electric utilities, which have been slow to commit to new
development projects. Exxon Mobil tried for years with little success to
interest Japanese utilities in a 1,200-mile gas pipeline from its gas
development on Sakhalin Island, Russia, to Tokyo.

Interest suddenly perked up when Exxon Mobil let it be known that it was
studying an alternative 1,000-mile pipeline to Harbin, China. China has also
plunged ahead with deals to bring in more liquefied natural gas from Indonesia
and Australia, where Japan also buys gas.

"Japan Inc. is thinking that there is no shortage of supply, that there will be
another bus in a minute," Mr. O'Sullivan said. "China is building terminals."

The yellow bulldozer's grading work here will not be in vain, whatever Moscow
decides. Krylova Cape is at the eastern end of the Trans-Siberian Railroad.
Next year, work will begin in earnest on the oil terminal, with plans for
140,000 barrels of oil a day to reach the port by rail for shipment to Japan
and elsewhere.

"Krylova Cape is a good spot," Viktor S. Gnedzilov, mayor of Nakhodka, the
municipality that oversees the cape and this port, said in an interview. "There
is the railroad. The piers can be extended one kilometer. We expect that
vessels up to 300,000 tons could come to the pier. It would be a colossal
benefit for Nakhodka - jobs, businesses, development, foreign investments."

In Russia's thinly populated Far East, the Japanese pipeline is seen as a
counterbalance to China, a partner Russians view with some misgivings.

"Many people here believe Japan is a more predictable country," said Alexei
Kabanchenko, spokesman for Nakhodka, a Slavic outpost whose billboards
proclaim: "Russia starts here."

Many Russian officials, including President Vladimir V. Putin, have also said
that Russia would gain economic clout if East Siberian oil were to be sold on
the world market rather than to just one customer, China.

"We had a cruel lesson with a gas pipeline to Turkey," Viktor V. Gorchakov,
regional vice governor for economic affairs, said in Vladivostok, the regional
capital. Once it was built, he said, the Turks reneged on earlier agreements.

"They told us, 'We don't need gas, cut the prices down,' " he said. "You get a
lesson like that once. But not again."

For their part, Chinese officials say that the Russians risk hitching their
future to a fading partner if they choose Japan. They express frustration that
the question has not yet been decided.

"We really put high importance on that pipeline," said Yang Bojiang, Northeast
Asian studies director of the China Institute of Contemporary International
Relations, on a recent visit to Tokyo. "When we faced them at first, I thought
they were sincere," Mr. Yang said of the Russian negotiators. "Now, I think
they are probably playing a game. The Japanese have been promising to pay
more."

President Hu Jintao thought he had won the pipeline last May when he visited
Moscow and signed a communiqué with Mr. Putin endorsing the Chinese route. On
the same visit, a Chinese state-owned oil company signed a 20-year, $150
billion agreement with Yukos, Russia's largest oil company, in which Yukos
promised to supply China with 400,000 barrels of oil a day by 2005, and 600,000
barrels a day by 2010. The Russian national railway system also announced
recently that it would expand sixfold its capacity for shipping oil to China.

But China lost an important advocate in Moscow on Oct. 25, when Mikhail B.
Khodorkovsky, the chief executive of Yukos, was arrested on charges of tax
evasion and fraud. Now political winds seem to blow Japan's way: the regional
governors in the Russian Far East are lobbying hard for the Japan route. Mr.
Putin's own representative in the region, Konstantin Pulikovsky, favors it so
strongly that he once called himself "a Japanese ambassador."

Still, the decision may come down to economics, not politics.

The China route proposed by Yukos would be shorter, faster and cheaper: 1,400
miles long and about $2.8 billion and seven years to build, compared with 2,300
miles, about $5.8 billion and a decade to build the Japan route.

The Japanese pipeline would be larger - a million barrels a day rather than
600,000 - but many Russians from President Putin on down wonder whether enough
oil can be produced in East Siberia to fill it. Advocates say that, given
advances in oil exploration and production technology, building the pipeline
would make it feasible to explore and develop new fields believed to lie east
of Lake Baikal but not worth pursuing in the past.

Despite a strong showing by economic nationalists in Russia's Dec. 7
parliamentary elections, the energy minister, Igor Yosufov, is encouraging
joint ventures with Japanese companies to explore eastern reserves now listed
as probable rather than proven. Confirming their potential would add weight to
the argument for a Sea of Japan pipeline. But disappointing results in Eastern
Siberia could make a smaller pipeline to China the only viable choice.

Russia needs to develop oil exports to fulfill President Putin's promise to
double the size of the nation's economy in this decade. It already produces
much more oil than it needs domestically; bottlenecks in export pipelines, now
straining at full capacity, have glutted the domestic market and pushed prices
down to about $4.50 a barrel in Russia, only one-seventh of the world price.
Transneft, the state pipeline monopoly, is working on projects to expand its
export capacity to ports on the Baltic and White seas.

As for the Far East, all eyes are now on Mr. Putin and his choice of pipeline
routes, as China and Japan each try to sway him.

Watching from a relatively neutral perch, Thomas U. Berger, a Boston University
professor of international relations, said on a visit to Tokyo: "This is the
great Asian oil game of the 21st century."


No Blood For Oil Page

===========================================

Russia - Japan

Tokyo Casts Pipeline Financing in Doubt

http://www.templetonthorp.com/ru/news927

Japan is threatening to withdraw its offer to help finance an $11.5 billion oil
pipeline from Siberia to the Pacific coast if the government goes ahead with a
plan to build a spur to China first, the Financial Times reported Friday.

Energy-hungry China and Japan have been competing for the rights for first
access to Siberian oil for years.

When Russia finally announced last year that it would build the pipeline to the
Pacific coast, it was seen as a victory for Japan. But Japan's trade minister,
Shoichi Nakagawa, told the FT last week that Moscow had raised the possibility
it could build the 4,100-kilometer pipeline in two stages and extend a spur
from Skovorodino in eastern Siberia to China.

Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko signed off on a decree last week
that ordered the first $6.5 billion section of the pipeline to be laid from
Taishet in the Irkutsk region to Skovorodino by late 2008. While work begins on
the second section of the project to extend the pipeline to the Pacific coast,
the oil would be transported by rail to a terminal on the coast.

But Skovorodino's proximity to the Chinese border, just 69 kilometers away,
throws open the possibility that a spur to China could be built before the
Pacific coast link is finished, the paper reported.

Building a spur to China first could endanger the completion of the link to the
Pacific, particularly if exploration in eastern Siberia yields disappointing
results or does not proceed at all. The Trans-Siberian link is planned to have
an initial capacity of 600,000 barrels per day and to climb after completion of
the second phase to 1.6 million bpd. China would easily consume the initial
600,000 bpd, opening the possibility that the second stage might not go ahead.

Oil pipeline monopoly Transneft did not rule out that China might be able to
tap into the pipeline first through the link to Skovorodino. "We are building a
pipeline across our own territory. No one will decide for us who gets oil
through it first," Transneft vice president Sergei Grigoriyev told the FT.

"If the pipeline stops halfway, then there's a big risk that the oil will never
reach Japan," said Nakagawa, whose ministry is in charge of Japan's energy
policy, the FT reported. "The point I made [to Russia] is, we would not be able
to provide taxpayers' money for such a risky project."

Grigoriyev, however, said Japanese funding was not necessary to complete the
project, the FT said.

Russian oil firms, meanwhile, are indicating that proposed transport charges
for the pipeline are too high to make the development of eastern Siberian
fields commercially viable.

"In the current circumstances, oil firms have no interest in developing new
regions, especially east Siberia," the president of No. 4 oil firm
Surgutneftegaz, Vladimir Bogdanov, told Prime-Tass. He called on the government
to cut taxes for those firms that would develop eastern Siberia and use the
expensive Asian pipeline.

Transneft head Semyon Vainshtok told Kommersant last week that the average
shipping fee on the route would be $49.90 per ton -- lower than expected but
twice as high as the current fees from western Siberia to Europe.

"We are going to apply a special price -- the closer [oil is produced] the more
expensive it would be, the further, the cheaper. Then oil firms would be free
to decide which market [Asian or European] they prefer," he said.

Transneft has said that the first shipments via the pipeline would rely on
crude from western Siberia, as the region is already connected to Irkutsk, but
that it would need 1 million bpd from eastern Siberia to fill the pipeline
completely.

Bogdanov, however, said the price should be set at a maximum of $30.
(The Moscow Times 03.v.05)
==================================================

"The People's Republic of China (China) is the world's most populous country
and the second largest energy consumer (after the United States). Production
and consumption of coal, its dominant fuel, is the highest in the world.
Rising oil demand and imports have made China a significant factor in world oil
markets. China also surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest petroleum
consumer in 2003."

- Country Analysis Briefs: China, US Department of Energy

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html

======================================================

Measures of Petroleum Dependence and Vulnerability in OECD Countries

Originally published in "the Middle East Economic Survey" (MEES 46:16, April
21, 2003)

http://www.wtrg.com/oecd/OECD0304.html


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